What the desks are seeing.
Occasional notes on the physical market, written by the desk that trades it. They describe flows and differentials, not price forecasts, and they are not a recommendation to trade.
Atlantic basin sour grades find a home east of Suez
Wider Brent–Dubai has pulled West African and Mediterranean sour barrels toward Indian and Chinese refiners, lengthening voyage days and firming Suezmax rates on the Med–West coast India run.
Northwest European gasoil holds a backwardated curve
ARA gasoil stocks sit below the five-year average into the autumn maintenance window, keeping prompt CIF NWE cargoes bid against barge differentials.
Duty-unpaid Rotterdam premiums drift as alumina softens
European duty-unpaid premiums eased toward the low $200s/mt while Australian alumina slipped below $420/mt, narrowing smelter margins outside long-term power contracts.
Concentrate remains tight against restarted smelter capacity
Spot treatment charges continue to trade under the annual benchmark as Andean supply disruption meets new Asian smelting capacity, keeping clean cathode premiums supported in Europe.
Bunker demand keeps 0.5% fuel oil anchored in Singapore
Steady bunker offtake and limited blending components have held the Singapore Marine Fuel 0.5% crack in a narrow band through the summer, with delivered premiums doing most of the work.
Freight, not price, decides where a July cargo goes
With grade differentials compressed, voyage economics have become the deciding variable on Atlantic liftings. We are pricing more term barrels with flexible discharge options.
The levels these notes refer to are published weekly on the reference levels page.
Reference levels